This recent study highlights situational crime prevention (SCP) as an effective tool to reduce casualties in active shooter incidents. By focusing on altering the environment, SCP offers a practical and adaptable approach for making public spaces less attractive to attackers, even in cases involving highly motivated offenders. Using data from 555 active shooter sites, the research identifies how SCP measures—like lockdowns and restricted entry—can significantly reduce harm. For instance, lockdowns were associated with a 35% decrease in casualties, while restricted entry reduced them by 20%.
The study also explored SCP strategies through the framework of effort, risk, and reward. Strategies that increased the effort required to carry out an attack or diminished its perceived rewards correlated with lower casualty rates. Interestingly, risk-increasing measures (e.g., surveillance) did not show a significant impact, possibly because active shooters often exhibit suicidal tendencies, making them less deterred by being identified or apprehended.
Importantly, SCP’s protective effects persisted even against highly motivated offenders, suggesting that SCP can remain effective without simply displacing violent actions to other locations—a common critique of SCP. Additionally, while factors like the use of semiautomatic firearms and first responder errors were linked to higher casualties, SCP measures still demonstrated their effectiveness in reducing harm in these complex situations.
In terms of real-world applications, SCP offers flexible strategies that can be customised for various public spaces based on resources and risk levels, from informal place management to formal security measures. This framework complements other preventive efforts, such as threat assessments and gun legislation, by providing an actionable approach to reducing casualties in high-risk environments.